terça-feira, 8 de janeiro de 2019
Investing.com - Here are the top five things you need to know in financial markets Today
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-tuesday-1740545
1. Focus on U.S.-Sino trade as talks wrap up
Tuesday marked the second and final day in a round of trade discussions between the U.S. and China being held in Beijing, with optimism on an amicable outcome buoying global risk assets.
“There’s a very good chance that we’ll get a reasonable settlement that China can live with, that we can live with, and that addresses all the key issues,” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told CNBC on Monday.
China approved five genetically modified (GM) crops for import on Tuesday, in an apparent show of good faith during the last day of trade talks. The U.S. is the world’s largest producer of GM crops.
“It's a goodwill gesture towards the resolution of the trade issue,” a China representative of a U.S. agricultural industry association told Reuters on Tuesday.
Washington and Beijing have until March 1 to make a deal, after which U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged to ramp up tariffs to 25%, from 10%, on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.
“The talks are still underway and I believe we will release a detailed readout after they are concluded,” Lu Kang, spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, announced on Tuesday, although specific time was given.
2. Global stocks supported by trade hopes despite Samsung (KS:005930) warning
Hopes that the U.S. and China may be moving closer to ending their prolonged trade spat supported global stocks on Tuesday.
Although optimism appeared to reign among stocks, an unexpected profit-warning from South Korea’s Samsung Electronic limited gains. The company estimated a 29% drop in quarterly profit due to weak demand for chips, bringing to mind last week’s dim outlook from U.S. tech giant Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). South Korea’s Kospi closed with a 0.6% decline amid mixed trade in Asia.
European shares were able to buck the disappointing news and the broad pan-European STOXX 600 gained around 0.5%
U.S. futures also pointed to a more optimistic open. At 5:52 AM ET (10:52 GMT), the blue-chip Dow futures rose 142 points, or 0.60%, S&P 500 futures rose 15 points, or 0.59%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures traded up 38 points, or 0.58%.
3. Trump set to speak on border ‘crisis’
U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he will deliver an address about the “crisis” on the southern border with Mexico at 9:00 PM ET (3:00 GMT Wednesday).
The U.S. government remains under partial shutdown as Trump grapples with Congress over funding for the border wall.
All the major U.S. television networks agreed to air Trump's speech, prompting Democrats, who say a wall would be expensive, inefficient and immoral, to seek equal time.
Talks to fund the government have broken down over the president’s insistence for $5.7 billion in funding, leaving several government agencies shuttered and some 800,000 government workers furloughed or working without pay.
4. Dollar regains ground ahead of more labor data
The U.S. dollar recovered some of its prior losses as U.S. and China wrap up a two-day trade meeting and investors awaited further data on the American labor market.
The main economic data on Tuesday will be the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) numbers for November.
The report will be released at 10 AM ET (15:00 GMT).
Economists forecast that job openings rose to 7.1 million.
But the numbers are from two months ago, so may not have a large impact on the markets, especially coming after last week's very strong gain in December nonfarm payrolls reported Friday.
5. Oil prices rise ahead of U.S. inventories
Oil prices have enjoyed a rally in the new year and pressed higher on Tuesday as investors turned their attention to weekly data on U.S. crude inventories.
Buying sentiment was supported by optimism that the U.S. and China could make progress in their trade negotiations.
The API’s weekly crude stockpiles report will come out at 4:30 PM ET (21:30 GMT).
U.S.-China Talks Near Close With Positive Signs From Both Sides
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/uschina-talks-near-close-with-positive-signs-from-both-sides-1740508
(Bloomberg) -- Chinese authorities planned to give a statement following the latest round of U.S. trade talks on Tuesday in Beijing, after both sides signaled progress toward resolving a conflict that has roiled markets.
“The talks are still underway and I believe we will release a detailed readout after they are concluded,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang told reporters at a regular briefing Tuesday in Beijing. No timing was given and it wasn’t immediately clear if the U.S. would release a statement.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expressed optimism on Monday, telling CNBC that “there’s a very good chance that we’ll get a reasonable settlement.” Vice Premier Liu He made an appearance at the talks on Monday in a sign the Chinese were also pushing for a positive outcome.
Liu, the chief economic adviser to Chinese President Xi Jinping, made brief remarks at the negotiations, a person familiar with the meeting said. Asked about his presence on Tuesday, Lu from the foreign ministry said it wasn’t surprising for Liu to be there. Liu led a previous round of talks in Washington last year that ended in failure, and he’s expected to meet chief U.S. negotiator Robert Lighthizer later this month.
Since the two presidents met on Dec. 1, China has made a number of concessions to U.S. demands, including temporarily cutting punitive tariffs on U.S.-made cars, resuming soybean purchases, promising to open up its markets for more foreign investment, and drafting a law to prevent forced technology transfers.
How China will enforce those measures will be key to any deal. U.S. officials have repeatedly accused China of not fulfilling agreements, with Ross saying on Monday that "the real issue is what are the enforcement mechanisms, what are the punishments if people don’t do what they were supposed to do?"
The U.S. negotiators in Beijing are pushing the Chinese side to come up with a mechanism to ensure that Beijing keeps the promises it makes, the Wall Street Journal reported. That includes giving specific dates for making purchases, and making assurances that Beijing won’t hinder U.S. companies from gaining access to China’s market.
Economic Cost
Six months after President Donald Trump first slapped tariffs on Chinese goods, signs are growing that the trade war is exacting an economic and financial cost, increasing the incentive for both sides to end the conflict. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL). cut its revenue outlook last week as sales of the iPhone were slower than expected in China, while data on factory activity and retail sales in the Asian nation were also weak.
Liu’s appearance at the talks is a “symbol of Xi’s personal buy-in” in the effort to reach a deal, said Leland Miller, chief executive officer of China Beige Book, a data-analytics firm that surveys companies across the Chinese economy. “Beijing wants to show this is supported at the very highest level.”
But much work remains before the two economic powers climb down. Trump has given U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer until March 1 to negotiate an accord with the Chinese on “structural changes” to Beijing’s state-driven economic model. The two sides have shown signs of common ground in the past year, only for progress to stall.
The discussions are the first face-to-face interactions between the U.S. and China since both presidents met in Argentina and agreed to a temporary truce in their tit-for-tat tariff war. More senior-level discussions could take place this month, with the South China Morning Post reporting that Trump and Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan may meet at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
China’s foreign ministry on Monday confirmed that Wang would deliver a keynote speech at Davos, though didn’t confirm any plans for him to meet Trump.
Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish is leading the American delegation in Beijing. Preliminary discussions were “a little more optimistic than usual,” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Bloomberg TV Friday.
(Bloomberg) -- Chinese authorities planned to give a statement following the latest round of U.S. trade talks on Tuesday in Beijing, after both sides signaled progress toward resolving a conflict that has roiled markets.
“The talks are still underway and I believe we will release a detailed readout after they are concluded,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang told reporters at a regular briefing Tuesday in Beijing. No timing was given and it wasn’t immediately clear if the U.S. would release a statement.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expressed optimism on Monday, telling CNBC that “there’s a very good chance that we’ll get a reasonable settlement.” Vice Premier Liu He made an appearance at the talks on Monday in a sign the Chinese were also pushing for a positive outcome.
Liu, the chief economic adviser to Chinese President Xi Jinping, made brief remarks at the negotiations, a person familiar with the meeting said. Asked about his presence on Tuesday, Lu from the foreign ministry said it wasn’t surprising for Liu to be there. Liu led a previous round of talks in Washington last year that ended in failure, and he’s expected to meet chief U.S. negotiator Robert Lighthizer later this month.
Since the two presidents met on Dec. 1, China has made a number of concessions to U.S. demands, including temporarily cutting punitive tariffs on U.S.-made cars, resuming soybean purchases, promising to open up its markets for more foreign investment, and drafting a law to prevent forced technology transfers.
How China will enforce those measures will be key to any deal. U.S. officials have repeatedly accused China of not fulfilling agreements, with Ross saying on Monday that "the real issue is what are the enforcement mechanisms, what are the punishments if people don’t do what they were supposed to do?"
The U.S. negotiators in Beijing are pushing the Chinese side to come up with a mechanism to ensure that Beijing keeps the promises it makes, the Wall Street Journal reported. That includes giving specific dates for making purchases, and making assurances that Beijing won’t hinder U.S. companies from gaining access to China’s market.
Economic Cost
Six months after President Donald Trump first slapped tariffs on Chinese goods, signs are growing that the trade war is exacting an economic and financial cost, increasing the incentive for both sides to end the conflict. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL). cut its revenue outlook last week as sales of the iPhone were slower than expected in China, while data on factory activity and retail sales in the Asian nation were also weak.
Liu’s appearance at the talks is a “symbol of Xi’s personal buy-in” in the effort to reach a deal, said Leland Miller, chief executive officer of China Beige Book, a data-analytics firm that surveys companies across the Chinese economy. “Beijing wants to show this is supported at the very highest level.”
But much work remains before the two economic powers climb down. Trump has given U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer until March 1 to negotiate an accord with the Chinese on “structural changes” to Beijing’s state-driven economic model. The two sides have shown signs of common ground in the past year, only for progress to stall.
The discussions are the first face-to-face interactions between the U.S. and China since both presidents met in Argentina and agreed to a temporary truce in their tit-for-tat tariff war. More senior-level discussions could take place this month, with the South China Morning Post reporting that Trump and Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan may meet at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
China’s foreign ministry on Monday confirmed that Wang would deliver a keynote speech at Davos, though didn’t confirm any plans for him to meet Trump.
Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish is leading the American delegation in Beijing. Preliminary discussions were “a little more optimistic than usual,” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Bloomberg TV Friday.
Relações de valores.
Creio que tal coisa é assim considerada como essência da ''verdade''. Nas escalas de valores são expressas condições de conservação e de crescimento . Todos os órgãos do conhecimento e dos sentidos são unicamente desenvolvidos quanto às condições de conservação e crescimento ... A confiança na razão e em suas categorias, na dialética, portanto, na escala de valores da lógica, demonstra somente a utilidade desta para a vida, utilidade já demonstrada pela experiência : e não absolutamente na sua verdade. Que seja necessário existir uma determinada quantidade de fé, que seja necessário possamos julga-la ; que falte a dúvida a respeito dos valores essenciais; são condições primárias de tudo quanto é vivo. Logo, é necessário que algo seja considerado como verdadeiro . O mundo -verdade e o mundo -aparência --- essa antinomia pode ser conduzida por nós a ''relações de valores ''.
*
Foi o fato de que, para prosperar, impõe-se a estabilidade em nossa crença, levou-nos a afirmar que o ''mundo-verdade'' não era mutável e flutuante no devir, mas que ele era o próprio ser.
*
Uma moral, isto é, um gênero de vida demonstrado por uma longa experiência e uma longa análise, acaba por atingir a consciência sob a forma dominadora...e , consequentemente, todo o grupo de valores e das condições similares penetra em seu círculo ; essa moral torna-se venerável, atingível , sagrada, verdadeira: é um sinal de que ela se constitui em dominadora... o mesmo exatamente poderia ter feito sua prova por uma utilidade relativa...Sobrevém um momento em que se pode resumi-las, faze-las chegar à consciência em seu conjunto.
K.M.
*
Foi o fato de que, para prosperar, impõe-se a estabilidade em nossa crença, levou-nos a afirmar que o ''mundo-verdade'' não era mutável e flutuante no devir, mas que ele era o próprio ser.
*
Uma moral, isto é, um gênero de vida demonstrado por uma longa experiência e uma longa análise, acaba por atingir a consciência sob a forma dominadora...e , consequentemente, todo o grupo de valores e das condições similares penetra em seu círculo ; essa moral torna-se venerável, atingível , sagrada, verdadeira: é um sinal de que ela se constitui em dominadora... o mesmo exatamente poderia ter feito sua prova por uma utilidade relativa...Sobrevém um momento em que se pode resumi-las, faze-las chegar à consciência em seu conjunto.
K.M.
LA SOLUCIÓN DE HUSSERL
żQué hacer? Una historia reciente aportaba enseńanzas teóricas. La antítesis entre historicismo y estructuralismo volvía a actualizar el debate entre génesis y estructura, o psicología y filosofía, que Husserl había afrontado en su momento, y la dialéctica prometía resolver las contradicciones, transformándolas en etapas de un itinerario. Cuando Husserl comienza a trabajar (su primera publicación como filósofo y no como matemático es la Filosofía de la aritmética, de 1891), por una parte, se encuentran el historicismo y el psicologismo; por la otra, Frege, en la lógica, y Marty, en la lingüística, que proponen, respectivamente, un imperio de los pensamientos puros, independiente de cualquier sujeto concreto, y una forma de estructuralismo.
Con respecto a esta controversia, el argumento de base de Husserl adopta esta tonalidad: las estructuras ideales tienen una génesis, que de todas formas no compromete su carácter ideal y absoluto. En ello estriba el punto básico de Derrida,[vi] que retrotrae cincuenta ańos el debate en pleno desarrollo entonces, y muestra que la necesidad de integrar la estructura con la génesis ya estaba enteramente presente en Husserl, quien precisamente mediante la integración entre génesis (esto es, Ťhistoriať) y estructura (esto es, Ťideať) había salvado los derechos de una filosofía como ciencia rigurosa, en oposición a los relativistas de su época. Puede volver a intentarse el experimento, adaptándolo a la nueva circunstancia.
En esta opción, el joven Derrida obviamente no está solo. Si buscamos el elemento común de la crítica que Piaget, Merleau-Ponty y Ricoeur dirigían en esos ańos al estructuralismo y a la fenomenología, lo encontraremos en la necesidad de integrar la estructura con una consideración genética, sin por ello renunciar a la dimensión estructural o ideal. żY en qué consiste —sugiere Derrida— esta necesidad, sino en la demanda de conciliar los contrarios, vale decir, de una dialéctica en la cual génesis y estructura puedan estar igualmente representadas?
I.2 Dialéctica en la fenomenología
I.2.1 El carácter irreducible de la génesis
LAS TRES ETAPAS DE HUSSERL. El problema de la génesis en la filosofía de Husserl es una monografía en tres partes que separa las etapas del problema de la génesis en el itinerario completo de Husserl en busca de un motivo común: la definición de la dialéctica que media entre historia y estructura, condensada en el motivo de la Ťgénesisť; en este caso, el origen de las estructuras y, en especial, de las estructuras ideales de la ciencia.
La primera parte corresponde al surgimiento del problema. Husserl, que se ha formado como matemático pero está influenciado por la reducción de la lógica a psicología propuesta por John Stuart Mill, propone una explicación genética y antiplatónica de las idealidades matemáticas, a las que hace depender de la psicología: en resumen, el número es fruto de nuestra mente; y personas con mentes diferentes de las nuestras tendrían números diferentes de los nuestros, o no tendrían número alguno.
Después de la caída de este planteo, debida (al menos en parte, visto que Husserl ya había empezado a rever sus propias posiciones) a la demoledora crítica de Frege a la Filosofía de la aritmética, se hace presente la tentación logicista. Es la segunda etapa de Husserl y la segunda sección de la Memoria, que examina el trayecto que lleva desde las Investigaciones lógicas de 1900-01 a las Ideas de la década siguiente. Aquí, Husserl, con una tajante inversión de rumbo, acomete la formulación de una lógica pura, lo que dentro de ese contexto significa la búsqueda de una lógica completamente depurada de cualquier elemento psicológico y genético.
Pese a todo, el trabajo de Husserl, que se empeńa en la radical disociación de la estructura respecto de la génesis, va rumbo a un fracaso, en cuanto sufre las consecuencias de la imposibilidad de una reducción de lo empírico a la esfera de lo trascendental. Una vez alcanzado ese punto, se abre la tercera etapa, donde el motivo histórico y genético vuelve a entrar de modo potente en la trama husserliana. Lo que cuenta ahora es la búsqueda de una genealogía de la lógica (así se lee en el subtítulo de Experiencia y juicio, publicado póstumamente en 1939, pero que reelabora manuscritos de los anos veinte). Es cuestión de arraigar las estructuras formales en el mundo, sin por ello reducirlas a su origen empírico —ya sea contar, en la aritmética, o hallar formas en el espacio físico, en la geometría—y, por sobre todo, sin reducir la esfera del a priori únicamente al ámbito de la matemática.
Con respecto a esta controversia, el argumento de base de Husserl adopta esta tonalidad: las estructuras ideales tienen una génesis, que de todas formas no compromete su carácter ideal y absoluto. En ello estriba el punto básico de Derrida,[vi] que retrotrae cincuenta ańos el debate en pleno desarrollo entonces, y muestra que la necesidad de integrar la estructura con la génesis ya estaba enteramente presente en Husserl, quien precisamente mediante la integración entre génesis (esto es, Ťhistoriať) y estructura (esto es, Ťideať) había salvado los derechos de una filosofía como ciencia rigurosa, en oposición a los relativistas de su época. Puede volver a intentarse el experimento, adaptándolo a la nueva circunstancia.
En esta opción, el joven Derrida obviamente no está solo. Si buscamos el elemento común de la crítica que Piaget, Merleau-Ponty y Ricoeur dirigían en esos ańos al estructuralismo y a la fenomenología, lo encontraremos en la necesidad de integrar la estructura con una consideración genética, sin por ello renunciar a la dimensión estructural o ideal. żY en qué consiste —sugiere Derrida— esta necesidad, sino en la demanda de conciliar los contrarios, vale decir, de una dialéctica en la cual génesis y estructura puedan estar igualmente representadas?
I.2 Dialéctica en la fenomenología
I.2.1 El carácter irreducible de la génesis
LAS TRES ETAPAS DE HUSSERL. El problema de la génesis en la filosofía de Husserl es una monografía en tres partes que separa las etapas del problema de la génesis en el itinerario completo de Husserl en busca de un motivo común: la definición de la dialéctica que media entre historia y estructura, condensada en el motivo de la Ťgénesisť; en este caso, el origen de las estructuras y, en especial, de las estructuras ideales de la ciencia.
La primera parte corresponde al surgimiento del problema. Husserl, que se ha formado como matemático pero está influenciado por la reducción de la lógica a psicología propuesta por John Stuart Mill, propone una explicación genética y antiplatónica de las idealidades matemáticas, a las que hace depender de la psicología: en resumen, el número es fruto de nuestra mente; y personas con mentes diferentes de las nuestras tendrían números diferentes de los nuestros, o no tendrían número alguno.
Después de la caída de este planteo, debida (al menos en parte, visto que Husserl ya había empezado a rever sus propias posiciones) a la demoledora crítica de Frege a la Filosofía de la aritmética, se hace presente la tentación logicista. Es la segunda etapa de Husserl y la segunda sección de la Memoria, que examina el trayecto que lleva desde las Investigaciones lógicas de 1900-01 a las Ideas de la década siguiente. Aquí, Husserl, con una tajante inversión de rumbo, acomete la formulación de una lógica pura, lo que dentro de ese contexto significa la búsqueda de una lógica completamente depurada de cualquier elemento psicológico y genético.
Pese a todo, el trabajo de Husserl, que se empeńa en la radical disociación de la estructura respecto de la génesis, va rumbo a un fracaso, en cuanto sufre las consecuencias de la imposibilidad de una reducción de lo empírico a la esfera de lo trascendental. Una vez alcanzado ese punto, se abre la tercera etapa, donde el motivo histórico y genético vuelve a entrar de modo potente en la trama husserliana. Lo que cuenta ahora es la búsqueda de una genealogía de la lógica (así se lee en el subtítulo de Experiencia y juicio, publicado póstumamente en 1939, pero que reelabora manuscritos de los anos veinte). Es cuestión de arraigar las estructuras formales en el mundo, sin por ello reducirlas a su origen empírico —ya sea contar, en la aritmética, o hallar formas en el espacio físico, en la geometría—y, por sobre todo, sin reducir la esfera del a priori únicamente al ámbito de la matemática.
A idéia de evidência.
Em Meditações cartesianas, Husserl afirma que "o conceito genuíno de ciência, naturalmente, não deve ser moldado por um processo de abstração", mas por "'imergir a nós mesmos' nos esforços científicos e operações que a eles pertencem, a fim de ver clara e distintamente o que realmente está sendo almejado" (1969a, p. 9). Isso parece próximo ao que estou recomendando. Husserl nota que aquilo que melhor identifica a ciência é que ela é um "esforço para juízos justificados", e que "o cientista pretende, não meramente julgar, mas fundar seus juízos" (1969a, p. 10-1). É certo que o ponto central da prática científica está nessa atenção contínua voltada para o potencial de fundar cada juízo a cada passo na pesquisa. Nesse sentido, "a ciência sempre pretende julgar expressamente e manter o juízo ou a verdade fixada, como um juízo expresso" (p. 11). É isso que faz de "uma prova" uma prova. Entretanto, a prova não porta seu fundamento em si própria, embora frequentemente se entenda que sim; em vez disso, essa fundamentação é uma colaboração social viva e corrente, que emerge enquanto os cientistas interagem e se comunicam entre si. Eles oferecem razões uns para os outros e uns com os outros. Sua objetividade é uma realização social e, como tal, ela pode ser estudada em seus detalhes. Husserl refere-se a tais estudos, mas são apenas alusões, e eles não são considerados como estudos mundanamente situados: "se nós avançamos dessa maneira (aqui, naturalmente, nós estamos apenas indicando o procedimento), então ao explicar mais precisamente o sentido de um fundamento ou aquele de cognição, nós chegamos imediatamente à ideia de evidência" (1969a, p. 10). Por que seria legítimo "apenas indicar o procedimento" em vez de segui-lo até aprender sobre os detalhes contingentes do lugar?
Kenneth Liberman
Kenneth Liberman
segunda-feira, 7 de janeiro de 2019
U.S., China can reach trade deal 'we can live with': U.S. Commerce secretary
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/china-has-good-faith-to-fix-trade-issues-as-talks-with-us-resume-1738966
By Michael Martina
BEIJING (Reuters) - U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross predicted on Monday that Beijing and Washington could reach a trade deal that "we can live with" as officials from the world's two largest economies resumed talks in a bid to end their trade dispute.
Ross told CNBC the immediate trade issues would be easiest to tackle while enforcement issues and structural reforms, such as intellectual property rights and market access, would be more challenging to resolve.
"I think there's a very good chance that we will get a reasonable settlement that China can live with, that we can live with and that addresses all of the key issues," Ross said in an interview with CNBC.
China's Foreign Ministry said Beijing had the "good faith" to work with the United States to resolve trade frictions as Chinese officials met their U.S. counterparts in Beijing for the first face-to-face talks since U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed in December to a 90-day truce in a trade war that has roiled global markets.
Trump said on Sunday that trade talks with China were going very well and that weakness in the Chinese economy gave Beijing a reason to work toward a deal. Ross told CNBC the talks were being held with appropriate-level staff and would help determine how the administration moves forward.
The two sides agreed to hold "positive and constructive" dialogue to resolve economic and trade disputes in accordance with the consensus reached by their respective leaders, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang told a regular news briefing.
"From the beginning we have believed that China-U.S. trade friction is not a positive situation for either country or the world economy. China has the good faith, on the basis of mutual respect and equality, to resolve the bilateral trade frictions."
Trump imposed import tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods last year and has threatened more to pressure Beijing to change its practices on issues ranging from industrial subsidies to intellectual property to hacking. China has retaliated with tariffs of its own.
"As for whether the Chinese economy is good or not, I have already explained this. China's development has ample tenacity and huge potential," Lu said. "We have firm confidence in the strong long-term fundamentals of the Chinese economy."
Lu also said Vice President Wang Qishan would attend the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in late January, but added that he had not yet heard of any arrangements for a meeting with Trump there.
By Monday evening, few details had emerged of the trade talks, which were scheduled to run through Tuesday.
Although the talks were held at a vice ministerial level, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who has led trade negotiations with the United States and is a top economic adviser to Xi, made an unexpected appearance at the meetings on Monday, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
The U.S. delegation, led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish, includes under secretaries from the U.S. departments of agriculture, commerce, energy and treasury, as well as senior officials from the White House.
Tu Xinquan, a Chinese trade expert at Beijing's University of International Business and Economics, told Reuters before talks began that the meetings would likely focus on technical issues and leave major disagreements to more senior officials.
"China's economy is significantly slowing down, and the U.S. stock market is declining quickly. I think the two sides need some kind of agreement for now," Tu said.
Data last week showed manufacturing has slowed in both China and the United States, though the U.S. Labor Department on Friday reported a surge in new jobs in December along with higher wages.
Officials have given scant details on concessions that China might be willing to make to meet U.S. demands, some of which would require structural reforms unpalatable for Chinese leaders.
Even if a trade agreement is reached soon, analysts say it would be no panacea for China's economy, which is expected to continue decelerating in coming months.
China's stridently nationalist Global Times tabloid said in an editorial late on Sunday that statements from both sides that they hoped to reach a deal were cause for optimism, but that Beijing would not cave in to U.S. demands.
"If China was going to raise the white flag, it would have done it already," the paper said.
UM SUB-TEXTO SE ALOJA(?), empoemando o sentido das palavras?
O que seria , enfim, a poética de Manoel de Barros? É possível defini-la? Em filosofia , as coisas definíveis recebem uma essência, uma identidade. É essa essência-identidade que permite o conhecimento científico da realidade. Porém, há coisas indefiníveis. As coisas indefiníveis não cabem em um conceito. Elas se permitem ser apenas experimentadas, vividas, intuídas. Não obstante, elas podem ser compreendidas. Compreender não é o mesmo que conhecer. Não podemos conhecer o infinito, mas o compreendemos. Talvez nunca tenhamos um conceito ou conhecimento científico da liberdade, porém compreendemos sua necessidade.
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A poética de Manoel de Barros talvez possa ser compreendida como uma originalíssima “empoética” . Não há regras ou cânones nessa empoética , uma vez que “empoemar” é um verbo que toda palavra pode conjugar quando perde seu limite utilitário e gramatical. Empoemar as palavras também é subverter os clichês e as representações que as fazem “acostumadas”. Essa empoética manoelina não possui regras de fabricação, a não ser o retirar das coisas as suas próprias regras: errar o idioma, fazer a gramática .O “errar o idioma” não se faz por uma fala pessoal que se equivoca nas regras, mas por intermédio de uma “fala coletiva” que diz um sentido que foge a toda regra, que leva a própria regra a variar.
Manoel empoema a palavra . Ele a liberta do mero informar. Ele empoema sobretudo as palavras mais simples. Redescobre, adulto, o falar empoemado da criança.A palavra empoemada não é mais representante linguística do mundo, pois ela incorpora o mundo que expressa:
Um subtexto se aloja.
Instala-se uma agramaticalidade quase insana,
que empoema o sentido das palavras.
Aflora uma linguagem de defloramentos ,
um inauguramento de falas.
Há nisso mais do que poesia… Talvez seja isso a autêntica poesia: ser mais do que poesia. A má poesia, ao contrário, é sempre menos. A autêntica poesia não é só verso: embora não seja conceito filosófico, ela “dá a pensar”, empoemando-nos. Este “dá a pensar” é o “inauguramento” de um sentido sempre novo, que não deixa a poesia se fechar nela mesma, na mera palavra ou letra. É preciso descobrir, na letra, a fala que a fez nascer. Não a fala pessoal como instância inferior à língua gramatical. A fala poética é sempre “afloramento de falas”: falas da infância, falas das coisas e das pré-coisas, falas do chão, falas dos loucos, falas dos passarinhos, falas do silêncio e até mesmo falas daqueles que não têm falas. Poesia é língua de brincar.
Não é por fazimentos cerebrais
que se chega ao milagre estético
senão que por instinto linguístico.
Segundo Manoel de Barros, “quem descreve não é dono do assunto, quem inventa é”. Quem descreve crê que o descrito existe fora da descrição, como algo que existe em si, com uma identidade definível e comunicável. Quem descreve se pretende “neutro”, imaginando falar de um lugar no qual não entram seu corpo e sua vida. “Eu escrevo com o corpo /Poesia não é para compreender, mas para incorporar”, adverte o poeta
http://saopauloreview.com.br/manoel-de-barros-em-um-ensaio-e-uma-homenagem/
China has 'good faith' to fix trade issues as talks with U.S. resume
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/china-has-good-faith-to-fix-trade-issues-as-talks-with-us-resume-1738966
Economy1 hour ago (Jan 07, 2019 05:26AM ET)
© Reuters. Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish, key member of the U.S. trade delegation to China, leaves a hotel in Beijing© Reuters. Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish, key member of the U.S. trade delegation to China, leaves a hotel in Beijing
By Michael Martina
BEIJING (Reuters) - China has the "good faith" to work with the United States to resolve trade frictions, the Foreign Ministry said on Monday, as the world's two largest economies resumed talks in a bid to end their trade dispute.
U.S. officials are meeting their counterparts in Beijing this week for the first face-to-face talks since U.S. President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping agreed in December to a 90-day truce in a trade war that has roiled global markets.
Trump said on Sunday that trade talks with China were going very well and that weakness in the Chinese economy gave Beijing a reason to work toward a deal.
The two sides agreed to hold "positive and constructive" dialogue to resolve economic and trade disputes in accordance with the consensus reached by the countries' leaders, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang told reporters at a regular news briefing.
"From the beginning we have believed that China-U.S. trade friction is not a positive situation for either country or the world economy. China has the good faith, on the basis of mutual respect and equality, to resolve the bilateral trade frictions," Lu said.
Trump imposed import tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods last year and has threatened more to pressure Beijing to change its practices on issues ranging from industrial subsidies to intellectual property to hacking. China has retaliated with tariffs of its own.
"As for whether the Chinese economy is good or not, I have already explained this. China's development has ample tenacity and huge potential," Lu said. "We have firm confidence in the strong long-term fundamentals of the Chinese economy."
Lu also said that Vice President Wang Qishan would attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in late January, but added that he had not yet heard of any arrangements for a meeting with Trump there.
By Monday afternoon, few details had emerged of the talks, which were scheduled to run through Tuesday.
The U.S. delegation, led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish, includes under secretaries from the U.S. Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy and Treasury, as well as senior officials from the White House.
Tu Xinquan, a Chinese trade expert at Beijing's University of International Business and Economics, told Reuters before talks began that the meetings would likely focus on technical issues and leave major disagreements to more senior officials.
"China's economy is significantly slowing down, and the U.S. stock market is declining quickly. I think the two sides need some kind of agreement for now," Tu said.
Data last week showed manufacturing has slowed in both China and the United States, though the U.S. Labor Department on Friday reported a surge in new jobs in December along with higher wages.
Officials have given scant details on concessions that China might be willing to make to meet U.S. demands, some of which would require structural reforms unpalatable for Chinese leaders.
Even if a trade agreement is reached soon, analysts say it would be no panacea for China's economy, which is expected to continue decelerating in coming months.
China's stridently nationalist Global Times tabloid said in an editorial late on Sunday that statements from both sides that they hoped to reach a deal were cause for optimism, but that Beijing would not cave in to U.S. demands.
"If China was going to raise the white flag, it would have done it already," the paper said.
Economy1 hour ago (Jan 07, 2019 05:26AM ET)
© Reuters. Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish, key member of the U.S. trade delegation to China, leaves a hotel in Beijing© Reuters. Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish, key member of the U.S. trade delegation to China, leaves a hotel in Beijing
By Michael Martina
BEIJING (Reuters) - China has the "good faith" to work with the United States to resolve trade frictions, the Foreign Ministry said on Monday, as the world's two largest economies resumed talks in a bid to end their trade dispute.
U.S. officials are meeting their counterparts in Beijing this week for the first face-to-face talks since U.S. President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping agreed in December to a 90-day truce in a trade war that has roiled global markets.
Trump said on Sunday that trade talks with China were going very well and that weakness in the Chinese economy gave Beijing a reason to work toward a deal.
The two sides agreed to hold "positive and constructive" dialogue to resolve economic and trade disputes in accordance with the consensus reached by the countries' leaders, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang told reporters at a regular news briefing.
"From the beginning we have believed that China-U.S. trade friction is not a positive situation for either country or the world economy. China has the good faith, on the basis of mutual respect and equality, to resolve the bilateral trade frictions," Lu said.
Trump imposed import tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods last year and has threatened more to pressure Beijing to change its practices on issues ranging from industrial subsidies to intellectual property to hacking. China has retaliated with tariffs of its own.
"As for whether the Chinese economy is good or not, I have already explained this. China's development has ample tenacity and huge potential," Lu said. "We have firm confidence in the strong long-term fundamentals of the Chinese economy."
Lu also said that Vice President Wang Qishan would attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in late January, but added that he had not yet heard of any arrangements for a meeting with Trump there.
By Monday afternoon, few details had emerged of the talks, which were scheduled to run through Tuesday.
The U.S. delegation, led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish, includes under secretaries from the U.S. Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy and Treasury, as well as senior officials from the White House.
Tu Xinquan, a Chinese trade expert at Beijing's University of International Business and Economics, told Reuters before talks began that the meetings would likely focus on technical issues and leave major disagreements to more senior officials.
"China's economy is significantly slowing down, and the U.S. stock market is declining quickly. I think the two sides need some kind of agreement for now," Tu said.
Data last week showed manufacturing has slowed in both China and the United States, though the U.S. Labor Department on Friday reported a surge in new jobs in December along with higher wages.
Officials have given scant details on concessions that China might be willing to make to meet U.S. demands, some of which would require structural reforms unpalatable for Chinese leaders.
Even if a trade agreement is reached soon, analysts say it would be no panacea for China's economy, which is expected to continue decelerating in coming months.
China's stridently nationalist Global Times tabloid said in an editorial late on Sunday that statements from both sides that they hoped to reach a deal were cause for optimism, but that Beijing would not cave in to U.S. demands.
"If China was going to raise the white flag, it would have done it already," the paper said.
U.S. Navy ship sails in disputed South China Sea amid trade talks with Beijing
https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/us-navy-ship-sails-in-disputed-south-china-sea-amid-trade-talks-with-beijing-1738828
World3 hours ago (Jan 07, 2019 03:27AM ET)
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Chinese ships are seen during a search and rescue exercise near Qilian Yu subgroup in the Paracel Islands, which is known in China as Xisha Islands, South China Sea© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Chinese ships are seen during a search and rescue exercise near Qilian Yu subgroup in the Paracel Islands, which is known in China as Xisha Islands, South China Sea
BEIJING (Reuters) - A U.S. guided-missile destroyer sailed near disputed islands in the South China Sea in what China called a "provocation" as U.S. officials joined talks in Beijing during a truce in a bitter trade war.
The USS McCampbell carried out a "freedom of navigation" operation, sailing within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Island chain, "to challenge excessive maritime claims", Pacific Fleet spokeswoman Rachel McMarr said in an emailed statement.
The operation was not about any one country or to make a political statement, McMarr said.
The statement came as trade talks between China and the United States were under way in Beijing, the first round of face-to-face discussions since both sides agreed to a 90-day truce in a trade war that has roiled international markets.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said that the conduct of the U.S. ship had violated China's and international law, and China had lodged "stern representations".
"We urge the United States to immediately cease this kind of provocation," he said, adding that China had sent military ships and aircraft to identify and warn off the ship.
Asked about the timing of the operation during trade talks, Lu said resolving issues would benefit the two countries and the world.
"Both sides have the responsibility to create the necessary positive atmosphere for this," he said.
China claims almost all of the strategic South China Sea and frequently lambastes the United States and its allies for freedom of navigation naval operations near Chinese-occupied islands.
Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan have competing claims in the region.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in December agreed to put on hold a spiraling trade dispute of tit-for-tat import tariffs on hundreds of billions worth of goods.
Trump has imposed tariffs to pressure Beijing to change its practices on issues ranging from corporate espionage to market access and industrial subsidies. China has retaliated with tariffs of its own.
Fears have grown in recent months that the dispute is just one vector in a bilateral relationship that is fast cooling across the board, with top administration officials sharply criticizing Beijing for everything from human rights abuses and its influence operations in the United States.
The two countries are also at odds over regional security, including Washington's overtures to the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own.
China and the United States have in the past repeatedly traded barbs over what Washington says is Beijing's militarization of the South China Sea by building military installations on artificial islands and reefs.
China defends its construction as necessary for self-defense and says that it is rather Washington that is responsible for ratcheting up tensions in the region by sending warships and military plans close to islands Beijing claims.
World3 hours ago (Jan 07, 2019 03:27AM ET)
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Chinese ships are seen during a search and rescue exercise near Qilian Yu subgroup in the Paracel Islands, which is known in China as Xisha Islands, South China Sea© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Chinese ships are seen during a search and rescue exercise near Qilian Yu subgroup in the Paracel Islands, which is known in China as Xisha Islands, South China Sea
BEIJING (Reuters) - A U.S. guided-missile destroyer sailed near disputed islands in the South China Sea in what China called a "provocation" as U.S. officials joined talks in Beijing during a truce in a bitter trade war.
The USS McCampbell carried out a "freedom of navigation" operation, sailing within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Island chain, "to challenge excessive maritime claims", Pacific Fleet spokeswoman Rachel McMarr said in an emailed statement.
The operation was not about any one country or to make a political statement, McMarr said.
The statement came as trade talks between China and the United States were under way in Beijing, the first round of face-to-face discussions since both sides agreed to a 90-day truce in a trade war that has roiled international markets.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said that the conduct of the U.S. ship had violated China's and international law, and China had lodged "stern representations".
"We urge the United States to immediately cease this kind of provocation," he said, adding that China had sent military ships and aircraft to identify and warn off the ship.
Asked about the timing of the operation during trade talks, Lu said resolving issues would benefit the two countries and the world.
"Both sides have the responsibility to create the necessary positive atmosphere for this," he said.
China claims almost all of the strategic South China Sea and frequently lambastes the United States and its allies for freedom of navigation naval operations near Chinese-occupied islands.
Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan have competing claims in the region.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in December agreed to put on hold a spiraling trade dispute of tit-for-tat import tariffs on hundreds of billions worth of goods.
Trump has imposed tariffs to pressure Beijing to change its practices on issues ranging from corporate espionage to market access and industrial subsidies. China has retaliated with tariffs of its own.
Fears have grown in recent months that the dispute is just one vector in a bilateral relationship that is fast cooling across the board, with top administration officials sharply criticizing Beijing for everything from human rights abuses and its influence operations in the United States.
The two countries are also at odds over regional security, including Washington's overtures to the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own.
China and the United States have in the past repeatedly traded barbs over what Washington says is Beijing's militarization of the South China Sea by building military installations on artificial islands and reefs.
China defends its construction as necessary for self-defense and says that it is rather Washington that is responsible for ratcheting up tensions in the region by sending warships and military plans close to islands Beijing claims.
domingo, 6 de janeiro de 2019
Economic Calendar - Top 5 Things to Watch This Week
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/economic-calendar--top-5-things-to-watch-this-week-1738456
Economy4 hours ago (Jan 06, 2019 05:23AM ET)
6
© Reuters. © Reuters.
Investing.com - After a volatile first week of trading in 2019, there’s a lot to keep markets on edge in the week ahead.
Equities around the globe rallied on Friday while bond yields rose after sharply declining earlier in the week as U.S. employment data pointed to economic strength and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank would be patient with monetary policy.
News that China and the U.S. are to hold trade talks in Beijing next week also boosted investor sentiment.
Financial markets have been in turmoil over the past several months amid a combination of concerns over rising U.S. interest rates and the impact of the U.S. - China trade war on the global economy.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.
1. Fed Minutes, Powell Speech
The minutes of the Fed’s December policy meeting will be published on Wednesday. At the meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to increase interest rates for a fourth time in 2018 and indicated that two more rate hikes this year are likely.
While investors will be closely scrutinizing the minutes, they will probably be dated following remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday.
He pledged that the central bank will be watching how the economy performs this year and will adjust policy accordingly.
“As always, there is no preset path for policy,” Powell said. “And particularly with muted inflation readings that we’ve seen coming in, we will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves.
Powell is due to deliver remarks at The Economic Club of Washington on Thursday.
2. Trade Talks
U.S. officials are scheduled to visit Beijing to resume trade talks on Jan. 7-8, as the two sides look to end a dispute that is inflicting increasing pain on both economies and roiling global financial markets.
President Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping agreed to a temporary trade ceasefire late last year on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, with the U.S. president suspending his decision to impose higher tariffs on Chinese imports.
Trump has said talks toward a deal are progressing well, but it is unclear if Beijing will yield to key U.S. demands over trade imbalances, market access, and alleged Chinese abuses of intellectual property.
Data last week showed a marked loss of momentum in the world's two largest economies at the end of last year.
U.S. factory activity slowed more than expected in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management, while Chinese data on Monday showed its manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 19 months.
3. U.S. Inflation Data
The Commerce Department will publish December inflation figures at 8:30AM ET Friday, which will be closely watched as investors try to determine the Fed’s outlook on monetary policy.
Consumer prices are expected to have declined 0.1% last month, the first drop in nine months and climbed 1.9% over the prior year, according to estimates.
Excluding the cost of food and fuel, core inflation is estimated to have increased 2.2% on a year-over-year basis.
This week’s calendar also features ISM non-manufacturing data on Monday, which is expected to show a modest decline, but the risk is that it turns in a downside surprise like the ISM manufacturing index.
4. Brexit
The UK parliament returns from Christmas holidays on Monday and Prime Minister Theresa May might again push back a final vote on her Brexit deal, less than three months before the country is due to exit the European Union.
The vote has been rescheduled for the week starting Jan. 14 after a debate which is scheduled to begin in the coming week.
May was forced to postpone in December a key vote on the Brexit plan she has agreed with other EU leaders in the face of deep opposition from within her own Conservative Party and other groups in parliament.
May's inability so far to get her deal through parliament has alarmed business leaders and investors who fear that the country is heading for an economically damaging no-deal Brexit.
5. Bank of Canada Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold and say it is sticking to its plan to raise them gradually when it meets this week. A decision is due at 10:00AM ET (15:00 GMT) on Wednesday.
The bank held steady at its Dec. 5 meeting and suggested the pace of future hikes could be more gradual, citing disappointing growth and low oil prices.
BoC Governor Stephen Poloz said in mid-December that the pace of interest rate hikes in Canada could be interrupted or sped up depending on the economic circumstances.
-- Reuters contributed to this report
Economy4 hours ago (Jan 06, 2019 05:23AM ET)
6
© Reuters. © Reuters.
Investing.com - After a volatile first week of trading in 2019, there’s a lot to keep markets on edge in the week ahead.
Equities around the globe rallied on Friday while bond yields rose after sharply declining earlier in the week as U.S. employment data pointed to economic strength and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank would be patient with monetary policy.
News that China and the U.S. are to hold trade talks in Beijing next week also boosted investor sentiment.
Financial markets have been in turmoil over the past several months amid a combination of concerns over rising U.S. interest rates and the impact of the U.S. - China trade war on the global economy.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.
1. Fed Minutes, Powell Speech
The minutes of the Fed’s December policy meeting will be published on Wednesday. At the meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to increase interest rates for a fourth time in 2018 and indicated that two more rate hikes this year are likely.
While investors will be closely scrutinizing the minutes, they will probably be dated following remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday.
He pledged that the central bank will be watching how the economy performs this year and will adjust policy accordingly.
“As always, there is no preset path for policy,” Powell said. “And particularly with muted inflation readings that we’ve seen coming in, we will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves.
Powell is due to deliver remarks at The Economic Club of Washington on Thursday.
2. Trade Talks
U.S. officials are scheduled to visit Beijing to resume trade talks on Jan. 7-8, as the two sides look to end a dispute that is inflicting increasing pain on both economies and roiling global financial markets.
President Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping agreed to a temporary trade ceasefire late last year on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, with the U.S. president suspending his decision to impose higher tariffs on Chinese imports.
Trump has said talks toward a deal are progressing well, but it is unclear if Beijing will yield to key U.S. demands over trade imbalances, market access, and alleged Chinese abuses of intellectual property.
Data last week showed a marked loss of momentum in the world's two largest economies at the end of last year.
U.S. factory activity slowed more than expected in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management, while Chinese data on Monday showed its manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 19 months.
3. U.S. Inflation Data
The Commerce Department will publish December inflation figures at 8:30AM ET Friday, which will be closely watched as investors try to determine the Fed’s outlook on monetary policy.
Consumer prices are expected to have declined 0.1% last month, the first drop in nine months and climbed 1.9% over the prior year, according to estimates.
Excluding the cost of food and fuel, core inflation is estimated to have increased 2.2% on a year-over-year basis.
This week’s calendar also features ISM non-manufacturing data on Monday, which is expected to show a modest decline, but the risk is that it turns in a downside surprise like the ISM manufacturing index.
4. Brexit
The UK parliament returns from Christmas holidays on Monday and Prime Minister Theresa May might again push back a final vote on her Brexit deal, less than three months before the country is due to exit the European Union.
The vote has been rescheduled for the week starting Jan. 14 after a debate which is scheduled to begin in the coming week.
May was forced to postpone in December a key vote on the Brexit plan she has agreed with other EU leaders in the face of deep opposition from within her own Conservative Party and other groups in parliament.
May's inability so far to get her deal through parliament has alarmed business leaders and investors who fear that the country is heading for an economically damaging no-deal Brexit.
5. Bank of Canada Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold and say it is sticking to its plan to raise them gradually when it meets this week. A decision is due at 10:00AM ET (15:00 GMT) on Wednesday.
The bank held steady at its Dec. 5 meeting and suggested the pace of future hikes could be more gradual, citing disappointing growth and low oil prices.
BoC Governor Stephen Poloz said in mid-December that the pace of interest rate hikes in Canada could be interrupted or sped up depending on the economic circumstances.
-- Reuters contributed to this report
sábado, 5 de janeiro de 2019
A fria e dura objetividade dos fatos
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investimento plurianual11, sobretudo em energia e transporte, que articulou o investimento público com o investimento das empresas estatais e privadas especialmente através de concessões em infraestrutura, e uma forte expansão do crédito para investimento, principalmente pelo setor bancário público. Segundo os "desenvolvimentistas", esse programa recuperaria uma infraestrutura econômica defasada por 30 anos de baixo investimento, ao mesmo tempo em que incluiria desonerações fiscais "para incentivar o investimento privado e o mercado de massa" (2010, p. 73). Outro aspecto emblemático da mudança de concepção do gasto público é que esse aumento no investimento estatal poderia ser financiado tanto por receitas tributárias quanto por novo endividamento, fato inédito desde as reformas orçamentárias de 1986, e violando um "tabu" da política fiscal12.
A forte resposta da economia a esse ativismo estatal, devida, em parte, a um ambiente internacional de liquidez e à expansão da demanda interna e externa até meados de 2008, fez com que a receita tributária e o PIB crescessem de modo a reduzir a dívida pública, medida em proporção do PIB (ver Tabela 1). Assim, melhoraram os indicadores fiscais, apesar da constante valorização do real perante o dólar13. Durante a fase mais aguda da atual crise internacional, houve um maior afrouxamento fiscal e expansão da liquidez, o que minimizou o impacto doméstico do choque contracionista. A economia se recuperou fortemente já em 2010, apesar da deterioração da conta de transações correntes, resultando em um ambiente interno de grande otimismo.
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O relevante a destacar é que essas medidas de política econômica foram introduzidas de forma complementar às políticas macroeconômicas vigentes, e não em sua substituição. Por exemplo, a política fiscal manteve a meta de resultado primário, mas, por norma legal, esse passou a ser entendido como resultado primário em despesas correntes, portanto excluindo os investimentos públicos e as contas de algumas grandes empresas estatais14. Isso resultou em uma disponibilidade maior de recursos para investimentos no setor público. Entretanto, ainda persiste um déficit nominal apesar do resultado primário favorável e do crescimento econômico (ver Tabela 1)15. Quanto à inflação, quando ocorreram choques adversos na oferta de alimentos non-tradables e subiram os preços internacionais das commodities, em 2007-2008, o governo respondeu com desonerações tributárias, minimizando tais choques e associando medidas fiscais às medidas monetárias no controle da inflação, seguindo a concepção novo-desenvolvimentista do uso de vários instrumentos complementares de política econômica. Da mesma forma, a política econômica associou desonerações fiscais com a ampliação do crédito para elevar o investimento privado de forma seletiva, medidas que são geralmente consideradas pela "visão neoliberal" como redutoras da eficiência da alocação de recursos, sendo tendencialmente desestabilizadoras e, portanto, contraproducentes.
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A construção teórica de uma nova política econômica no Brasil, desenvolvendo a teoria contemporânea e reelaborando a experiência do nacional-desenvolvimentismo, teve por impulso a superação de aspectos importantes do neoliberalismo, incluindo as políticas macroeconômicas e as reformas microeconômicas. As políticas neoliberais vêm sendo crescentemente vistas como nocivas em um contexto periférico, especialmente após as crises cambiais que atingiram o Sudeste Asiático. Essas se deveram, em grande medida, à desregulamentação financeira e ao livre movimento de capitais, que geraram instabilidade cambial, movimentos especulativos e o crash. A continuidade dessas políticas nos primeiros anos do governo Lula, tido como portador de mudanças políticas e socioeconômicas, originou críticas e catalisou a elaboração de propostas alternativas de política econômica.
Enquanto alternativa mais difundida, e conforme examinado acima, o novo-desenvolvimentismo contém um corpo articulado de políticas econômicas baseadas teoricamente no keynesianismo e no estruturalismo cepalino. Seu objetivo é representar uma nova estratégia de desenvolvimento, superando o nacional-desenvolvimentismo tradicional e adequando os seus princípios às novas realidades emergentes da revolução tecnológica e da globalização. Essa política econômica advoga a necessidade de uma ruptura com as políticas macroeconômicas neoliberais, a serem substituídas por novas políticas monetárias, cambiais e fiscais, e subordina a adoção das novas políticas à existência de um projeto nacional para o Estado brasileiro. A defesa da ruptura tem como fundamento a ideia de que as políticas macroeconômicas neoliberais são incompatíveis com a soberania do Estado para implementar uma política econômica atendendo ao objetivo nacional de retomada do desenvolvimento com estabilidade macroeconômica e com um menor custo fiscal.
A base teórica do novo desenvolvimentismo guarda semelhança com o neoestruturalismo de Fajnzylber (1989) e Cepal (1990), que entende a equidade como objetivo inerente e necessário ao desenvolvimento dos países latino-americanos.
Muitas das medidas de política econômica preconizadas pelo novo-desenvolvimentismo passaram a ser adotadas pelo governo Lula a partir de 2006, mas sem ter havido uma ruptura com as políticas macroeconômicas neoliberais. Essas mudanças - consideradas, corretamente, por Barbosa e Souza (2010) como uma inflexão e não como uma "nova política" - se deram de forma complementar (ou mesmo aditiva) às políticas macroeconômicas neoliberais, que foram mantidas praticamente sem alterações, apesar de tensões durante o período 2006-2010.
O sentido mais amplo das mudanças foi dar ativismo ao Estado no domínio econômico, principalmente (a) no fomento à produção via financiamento de capital e investimentos públicos em infraestrutura; (b) na expansão do mercado de consumo de massa via programas de transferência de renda, elevação do salário mínimo e do crédito ao consumo; e (c) apoio à formação de grandes empresas brasileiras, transformando-as em agentes competitivos em frente às multinacionais tanto no mercado interno como no mercado internacional, via crédito e outros incentivos regulatórios para aquisições e fusões, e também via apoio diplomático, em especial nas relações Sul-Sul.
Algumas das mudanças da política econômica não se apresentam explicitamente no programa novo-desenvolvimentista, apesar de serem coerentes com ele, como é o caso da estratégia de formar "empresas campeãs", que tem inspiração na experiência de países emergentes do Leste Asiático, além de medidas associadas com a expansão do mercado de consumo. Quanto a esse último aspecto, nota-se que o novo-desenvolvimentismo destaca genericamente a "equidade", enquanto o discurso do governo Lula enfatizava a "inclusão".
Esse caráter complementar, ou adicional, da inflexão de política econômica no segundo governo Lula não permite considerá-la como uma política novo-desenvolvimentista inteiramente coerente. Apesar dos bons resultados atingidos em termos de crescimento econômico e distribuição de renda, e da melhora do posicionamento do Brasil no sistema capitalista internacional, a inflexão ocorrida a partir de 2006 definiu uma política que pode ser denominada mais apropriadamente como "híbrida", associando políticas macroeconômicas visando à estabilidade monetária e presumindo, implicitamente, o equilíbrio espontâneo dos mercados, com políticas objetivando à aceleração do desenvolvimento e a equidade social mediante um destacado ativismo estatal.
Diferentemente do que seria de prever, essa convivência de políticas econômicas supostamente antagônicas vem obtendo resultados tão favoráveis quanto inesperados, apesar da continuidade de problemas decorrentes da manutenção das políticas macroeconômicas neoliberais. Houve uma generalizada melhora das variáveis econômicas a partir de 2006, algumas delas apontando, inclusive, para mudanças estruturais em curso na economia brasileira. No setor externo, por exemplo, nota-se (a) a elevação constante e acelerada, em valores absolutos, dos ativos brasileiros no exterior, em especial dos investimentos diretos e dos créditos comerciais, mostrando que o país passou a financiar parte considerável de suas exportações (para os dados a seguir, ver Tabela 2); e (b) a estabilidade do passivo externo líquido total como porcentagem do PIB, apesar da crise internacional deflagrada em setembro de 2008.
Apesar disso, também se nota que outros dois indicadores externos importantes não sugerem alterações estruturais, já que podem sofrer reversão a depender de circunstâncias conjunturais. Esses incluem (a) o crescimento das reservas internacionais, que é compensado por idêntico volume de passivos estrangeiros em port-fólio, de grande liquidez; e (b) a posição credora externa, que depende da capacidade do sistema financeiro doméstico de manter elevada a oferta de crédito em reais. Internamente, é possível tomar como indicador de mudanças estruturais a redução monotônica da pobreza absoluta de 35,8% das famílias, em 2003, para 21,4% em 200916, e o forte aumento da oferta de crédito interno por bancos privados e estatais, que passou de 24,6% do PIB, em 2003, para 46,6% do PIB em 2010 (o crédito dos bancos privados cresceu de 14,8% para 27,1% do PIB, enquanto o dos bancos estatais cresceu de 9,8% para 19,5% do PIB).
Esta situação inusitada, em que uma "política híbrida" logrou atingir um sucesso amplo e significativo, foi certamente inesperada. A perplexidade generalizada devida ao bom desempenho da economia brasileira deve-se ao suposto de que tal mescla de políticas é insustentável, tanto pela perspectiva do mainstream quanto pela "heterodoxia" novo-desenvolvimentista. Esse resultante inesperado coloca-nos diante da necessidade de explicar por que a inflexão, que, desde 2006, "hibridizou" políticas macroeconômicas neoliberais com políticas contrastantes de desenvolvimento e equidade via ativismo estatal, alcançou resultados tão positivos.
Uma possível explicação seria que ocorreu uma suspensão momentânea dessa incompatibilidade devido a causas contingentes e exógenas à economia nacional - especificamente, a excepcional liquidez internacional no período 2003-2008. Essas circunstâncias extraordinárias teriam permitido que as medidas heterodoxas fossem absorvidas momentaneamente pelos agentes internos e externos, bloqueando a crise de desconfiança que anteciparia o seu "inevitável" impacto adverso nas contas públicas e na inflação, através da suspensão dos investimentos e da fuga de capitais. Nesse caso, a incompatibilidade voltaria a se impor quando essa conjuntura for revertida, o que é inevitável dada à natureza cíclica da economia internacional.
Como mostram Barbosa e Souza (2010), essa explicação é insuficiente, pois a política híbrida continuou a dar bons resultados mesmo quando as circunstâncias internacionais favoráveis foram abruptamente substituídas por uma grave crise, em setembro de 2008. A reação do governo à nova situação aprofundou suas políticas de estímulo à renda e à demanda, acentuando o ativismo estatal. Supostamente, essa reação não só impediu que o choque externo inviabilizasse os ganhos atingidos com a "inflexão" (como a elevação dos investimentos públicos e privados, o aumento da renda e a queda da desigualdade), como permitiu a volta ao crescimento a partir do final de 2009, em que pese - outra vez - o retorno da sobrevalorização do real e a elevação do custo fiscal da política monetária e do regime de flutuação cambial.
Outra explicação - mais abrangente que a anterior - seria que, apesar da incompatibilidade em questão ser verdadeira, sua suspensão provisória deve-se a uma singular conjunção de fatores políticos e econômicos inscritos no desenvolvimento do capitalismo brasileiro. Em primeiro lugar, não se deve subestimar a capacidade de forças políticas "alternativas" operarem apesar da ideologia hegemônica, especialmente quando a força do consenso ortodoxo está em declínio, como demonstra Bresser-Pereira (2001)17. Essa capacidade do governo Lula de operar em oposição ao mainstream pode ter sido reforçada, a partir de 2005, pela evolução favorável da liquidez internacional e pela melhora rápida (e rara) nas condições econômicas de todas as classes sociais, em resposta às políticas do governo. Por sua vez, essa resposta rápida pode ser explicada pela existência de ganhos "potenciais de produtividade" na economia, até então não mobilizados, conforme argumentado por Barbosa e Souza (2010). Em segundo lugar, deve-se atentar para a presença singular de uma liderança política carismática e dotada de imaginação política, como Lula comprovou ao exercer o governo.
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